A statistical model rates each team's strength and runs 10,000 tournament simulations to figure out who's most likely to win. The 2026 tournament is now complete. Use the stage buttons under the title odds and the bracket to see how the picture shifted from kickoff to the final, stage by stage.
Each team's chance of winning the whole thing. Pick a stage to see where the odds stood then. Every team's chances are re-simulated after each matchday and each knockout round, locking in the games already decided.
The same run-through as the odds. Pick a stage: every game decided by then is locked to its real result, and the rest is the model's prediction from that point. Start at pre-knockout for the pure prediction, step to the final for the finished bracket. Each percentage is a team's chance of winning that game.
Pred. is the model's pre-tournament estimate of each team's chances of making it out of the group stage. Res. shows what actually happened: ✓ means they advanced, ✗ means they went out.
Backtested on 2,546 international matches the model had never seen during training. What matters is not just whether it picks the right winner, but whether its probabilities are actually accurate.